The UOB Group expect FX analysts that the AUD / USD for the time being within the range of 0.6820 / 0.6860 will move.
24-hour view: "The expectation is that the AUD" to 0.6870 "increases did not materialize because he was traded from 0.6820 to 0.6856 sideways The momentum indicators are broadly neutral and the AUD is likely to continue. sideways. Expected tend range for today 0.6820 / 0.6860. "
Next 1-3 weeks: "After the AUD was (03 December) rose sharply to 0.6862 on Tuesday, he could not accomplish much, since he was traded in the last days sideways The performance was not surprising, as we are. on Wednesday (04 December, price 0.6850) realized that "hinläuft the two-day rally of + 1.30% over and the AUD is still strong, but may not yet be ready to take the next resistance of 0.6900 challenge. "for now, we are still of the same opinion, as long as the" strong support "at 0.6795 (no change of level) is intact."
The dollar index has fallen at the end of the week to 97.40 / 35, while it is the sixth day decline in a row.
The recent decline below the 200-day SMA of 97.60 / 65 has opened the door for downward movement to the October and November highs of 97.10 and the August low of 97.03.
A resistor is with the 200-day SMA at 97.64 and only about the outlook for the index are positive.
According to Commerzbank analysts, the EUR/USD pair is challenging the 5-month down trend at 1.1115.
The downward trend, the October high of 1.1180, the 1.1249 channel resistance and the 200-week MA of 1.1359 defended. The latter level is a critical break point for medium-term positive outlook.
Intraday setback should remain above the 1.1050 / 45th This defends the recent low of 1.0981.
A fall below 1.0980 has the 78.6% retracement of 1.0943 to the goal. This is the last defense en route to the October low of 1.0879 and the 1.0814 Fibo retracement, which should provoke a reverse movement.
The rally in the British pound dropped the EUR / GBP falls to new low of 0.8430. The European pair has the May-August rally, which reached to about 0.9300, completely reversed and the focus is now on a downward movement, since there has been a decline to 0.8480.
The Euro is weaker across the board, as the greenback with the US-China trade headlines recovered.
Sterling benefited today by the triggering of stop orders, after which he was higher against the greenback above 1.30, while the latest survey results showed that the Tory able to reach a majority of the parliamentary elections on 12 December.
The pair loses -0.60% at 0.8473 and next supports lie at 0.8470 (2019 low on Dec. 4), 0.8382 (month low in May 2017) and 0.8297 (2017 low on April 18). On the other side there are resistances at 0.8557 (21-day SMA), 0.8605 (November 22 high) and 0.8676 (55-day SMA).
The EUR/USD pair is bidding near 1.1100 handle and it may test 1.1125 level, suggested by the UOB Group.
24-hour view: “EUR traded between 1.1071 and 1.1108, narrower and higher than our expected sideway-trading range of 1.1055/1.1100. The underlying tone has improved somewhat and this would likely translate into a slow grind higher towards 1.1125. For today, the next level at 1.1150 is unlikely to come into the picture. Support is at 1.1090 followed by 1.1070.”
Next 1-3 weeks: “There is not much to add to add to the update from yesterday (04 Nov, spot at 1.1080). As highlighted, while it is too early to expect a sustained advance, EUR could test the strong 1.1125 resistance. However, the rapid retreat from the NY hour peak of 1.1115 has weakened the underlying tone somewhat. That said, only a break of 1.1035 (‘strong support’ level was at 1.1020 yesterday) would indicate the current upward pressure has eased. Until there is a break of the ‘strong support’ level, another ‘stab’ at 1.1125 is not ruled out just yet.”
TDS analysts expect the US nonfarm payroll to augment by 200k in November following the consensus of 128k in October.
“The headline print is benefiting from a temporary boost in job gains in the goods sector, which should rebound by around 50k —a bounce-back from last month's large decline due to the GM strike.”
“We look for the overall household survey to show the unemployment rate ticked down a tenth to 3.5% and expect wages to rise 0.3% m/m, leaving the annual rate unchanged at 3.0% y/y.”
TDS analysts are anticipating the Eurozone IP to come with no significant change on monthly basis for October.
“Headline into the weekend, we'll be keeping an eye on news from Germany's SPD conference that begins today, where Walter-Borjans and Esken are expected to be formally elected as the new co-chairs of the party. They plan to re-think SPD's participation in the coalition government, and we hope to get a better idea of their plans, and whether they're going to push for a change in policy, or if they might walk away from the coalition altogether.”
The crude oil price ended up with no significant change in price for the last two trading sessions despite the fact that OPEC and Russia agree to cut the production.
It is anticipated to cut 1.2 mn barrels per day in addition to 500k barrels per day till end of March 2020.
The WTI has formed a doji pattern on Thursday which is a symbol for indecision in the market. However, it also denotes that the rally from $51.00 has exhausted.
The GBP/USD pair is wobbling around mid-1.3100 ahead of London session on Friday. The price surged for seven straight session till yesterday reaching the top of May.
Broad weakness in the US Dollar is helping the pair to get positive momentum while Brexit concerns have also gained some optimism.
Further fresh impetus will be provided by the NFP data release which is due in the early New York session today.
Technical levels to watch
According to Royal Bank of Canada, the trade deficit has dramatically narrowed in the month of October. US auto sector has impacted on both imports and exports of Canada.
“Non-energy export volumes still managed to post a decent increase but are only displaying a faint pulse, down 0.3% from a year earlier.”
“Despite a slightly better than expected outcome in October, we continue to think trade will act as a drag on growth again in Q4. A challenging global backdrop has made 2019 a year to forget for exporters, but as the BoC noted yesterday, there is "nascent evidence" that global growth is stabilizing.”
“Perhaps more importantly, Canada's economy has continued to display resilience in other sectors, particularly services. In fact, services data released today (alongside the goods numbers for the first time) showed services exports were up more than 5% from a year earlier. It is that resilience, as well as concerns about household debt, that has the BoC sounding more reluctant to lower interest rates.”
Gold has again stepped back from the 200 SMA level, falling towards $1474 level on Friday ahead of European session. The metal has formed a rising channel which is one month old.
The next support below $1472 lies at $1455 where if sellers dominate, may lead the price towards $1445. On the upside, breaking the $1485 level may help the buyers to gain positive momentum towards $1500.
Fx options expiring today at 10 am NY time via DTCC:
The EUR/USD quickly outperformed its pullback on Wednesday and is back in the psychological 1.11100 range. After two weeks of losses, the pair can make a profit, thanks to continued selling pressure against the greenback.
The poor US economic data has left us wondering if the US economy is really in such good shape, while US-China trading news is hurting returns, which negatively impacts the greenback.
Eurozone retail sales disappointed in October, while Q3 GDP was in line with the forecast . US initial jobless claims hit the 7-month low at 203K, while the trade deficit dropped to $47.2 billion. Next up are US factory orders and durable goods orders.
The pair was able to break the 1.1100 range due to selling pressure versus the greenback related to the US-China trading problems. However, the outbreak was not sustainable and it went back to 1.1080 / 90. Despite the recent positive results from Germany, the slowdown in the region remains ubiquitous, causing the ECB to maintain its loose monetary policy for a longer period of time and this should lead to negative outlooks for the single currency in the longer term.
Currently, the pair's daily gain is 0.16% at 1.1095 and next resistance is at 1.11116 (monthly high 4. December), 1.1158 (200-day SMA) and 1.1179 (monthly high 21. October) , On the other hand, supports are at 1.1067 (100-day SMA), 1.1042 (55-day SMA), and 1.0989 (14-month low).
Bank of Canada (BoC) Deputy Governor Timothy Lane said in the last hour that its notable economic strength and targeted inflation make the domestic economy resilient but not immune.
The better sentiment against the sterling is gaining in the EUR/GBP and falling within the 0.8430 range, where the new 2019 low was formed.
The negative sentiment towards the European couple remains Thursday for the third consecutive session. Within the last 17 weeks, the pair only finished three weeks with a win and it is already the fifth month in a row.
Sentiment has improved around the British pound as UK election polls show that the Conservative Party can hope for a majority on 12 December. The Tories lead with respect to the Labor with a distance of 12 points.
The pair lost -0.13% overall at 0.8442 and next support is at 0.8430 (2019 low 5 December), 0.8382 (May-May low) and 0.8297 (2017 low 18-year low). April). On the other hand, resistors are at 0.8548 (21-day SMA), 0.8605 (high November 20) and 0.8669 (55-day SMA).
In the context of the stimulus package, which is expected to be announced by the Japanese government, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the stimulus package will be comprehensive and preventive.
Meanwhile, the USD/JPY is challenging the highs near the 109, while expectations for a US-China trade agreement with the comments of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce have increased.
Before today's meeting of OPEC and its allies (OPEC +), Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak tells Saudi Arabian oil minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman that they are confident that cooperation will continue.
This comment comes after Reuters, citing some sources, reports that deeper production cuts of more than 400k bpd will be on the agenda.
Meanwhile, WTI remains in its range, near the multi-day high of 58.66 as the bulls await the outcome of the OPEC + meeting for the next trade pulse.
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