Since March 2017, USD/CHF has traded to its top level. USD/CHF trading over its principal SMAs shows a bullish strength but bulls must overcome the 1.0060/80 positive side resistance. In the drawback, if the bears determine to lead, 1.0030 and 1.0090 may be revealed.
At the start of the week, crude oil prices surged significantly and pushed WTI and Brent barrels up to $66.00 respectively and up to 2019, and up to $74.00.
The US sweet light crude oil comparison pricing developed to fresh 2019, with a $66.00 per barrel limit sooner in the White House meeting after it said it is going to eradicate exemptions issued to 8 countries for buy of Iranian crude oil underneath the present US sanctions scheme. These are China, India, South Korea, Turkey, Greece, Italy, Taiwan and Japan.
Yesterday after the US-Iran headlines, W TI rose to fresh 6 months peaks at $66.00 per barrel. Moreover, expectations of a nearer trade agreement between the United States and China are still on the rise, working with a lively sentiment for crude oil.
USD/CAD traded over its simple moving average of 200 (SMA) in a bull trend. USD/CAD is less than 1.3400 figure in a very narrow range. As USD/CAD trades under the 50 and 100 SMA, it has decreased to 1.3330, 1.3310 and 1.3280 in the near term, respectively. To resume the bull trend to 1.3470 resistance, buyers want a credible break over 1.3400.
GBP/USD traded over its Simple Moving Average (SMA) for a mergers of 200 days. On Easter Monday, volatility will probably be limited. The market is trading under its primary SMAs, which in the near term suggests a harmful bias. 1.2880 is an important intraday support and a lower break would open the gates to a level of 1.2950. An upsurge at 1.2880 could otherwise lead to rehab of 1.3000 and 1.3020.
Prices currently trade at $1.278 per ounce of gold thanks to a bounce due to oversold conditions in Asia. A 0.19% increase during the day may extend between $1.281 and $1.285 (resistance range); the 1H RSI is starting to report bullish market conditions, coupled with an above-50 print.
Another strong indicator for the corrective bounce is that the bullish divergence for the 4-hour RSI (which was confirmed a week ago) now looks more pronounced, closing the indicator on 50 levels.
Nevertheless, any profits from the previous range can be ephemeral given the US jobless claims and retail sales released last week, which have weakened the likelihood of a recession for the US economy.
In other words, the USD is looking to perform well in the following days, marking gains with Gold.
In addition, when it comes to longer duration for the charts, a bearish trend can be witnessed. The evidence has also been discussed by experts.
For all intents and purposes, a good time for purchasing Gold seems to be coming, but traders taking short position for longer terms should remain on the lookout for when the bearish trend starts rearing its head.
Without citing sources, the Sunday Times stated that one of the heads at the Conservative Party (Theresa May’s) is to tell her to quit her position within two months; on the contrary, her lawmakers will—again— try to oust her. The announcement is said to occur this week.
Brady, chairing the 1922 Committee made from backbench lawmakers, will announce to her that a 70% of her members belonging to parliament want her resigning her position regarding the Brexit.
Worth noting in face of all the present information is that the European Union already granted an extension for six months (up to October 31st) to the government of the UK, given May’s failure at breaking an impasse at the parliament regarding the terms of the Brexit.
What does this mean for the Forex market?
The GBP has been suffering steady decreases in value amidst the uncertainty regarding the Brexit. After a brief strengthening for the Pound when development started, defeat after defeat have translated into heavy hits for the GBP.
While May’s forced abandonment of her charge may become one of the strongest reasons to sell the GBP, it may be worth waiting how the news occur, as a change in leadership may prove beneficial.
The GBP/USD pair has weakened slightly, trading around the 1.2990 mark at the start of Monday. Even though a break in ascending trend-line support can be witnessed, the 200-day Simple Moving Average places downside weigh on the pair, teaming up with the Easter holidays.
Nevertheless, the US disappointing numbers for the housing market this Friday—and the absence of UK lawmakers from parliament until April 23 comes around—place weight to restrict the performance for the GBP/USD.
An important element to consider as well comes in the form of Easter, as Easter Monday played well its role as a restriction for the performance of the pair.
Holidays notwithstanding, the Chicago Fed National activity index for the USD March month is about to be released soon, providing hope for a better change in the GBP/USD pair. During its latest release, the activity index saw a -0.29 decrease as of its previous release, while home sales moved from 5.51 million to a 5.30 million figure showing this year.
A 200-day SMA with a level of 1.2970 and 1.2955 for a 100-day SMA can plant doubt on sellers, breaking them can force recalls 1.2880, 1.2910, and 1.2930 supports on your graphs.
The USD/CAD traded around the intra-day low at 1.3365 even though Easter Monday tends to decrease major moves in the market. At the same time, the main export in Canada, WTI crude oil, saw its value increase to a five-month high.
A reason for such happening may be found in the figures released for the US housing market in Friday, which proved to be lower than expected.
The Washington Post’s news report about the US announcing sanctions to purchasers of Iran’s crude oil are of high importance for those looking to profit from oil prices. The idea behind the sanctions is to cut oil exports in Iran down to zero, and among the consequences, we have the WTI crude oil propelling to $64.92.
However, the news spell danger for USD holders as it proves to boost the CAD value between the pair. Balance could be reestablished by the release of home sales in March for the US, which helped appreciate the USD.
As for technical analysis, a 100-day SMA at 1.3330 can be seen nearing an important support levels. In addition to that, the downward trend-line’s strength can be questioned after a the success in surpassing the 1.3400 mark.
At the start of the week, the buying interest on the European currency stays unchanged and now climbs EUR/USD in the region about 1.1250 for fresh peaks.
Position attempted to quit unhappy prints from high-tech PMIs in core Euroland for the present month last week and rebounded in the area of 1.1220 last Thursday. This year the company was in a state of affairs.
There are wide risk cravings trends in order to control the sentiment of the European currency for the moment, whilst the ongoing trade conflict between the US and China and the potential deal will stay the focus of attention over the next few weeks.
The latest slow outcomes from main regional principle issues plus a now improbable bounce in the second half of the year have introduced the continued worries that the region's downturn could last longer than anticipated, so that the ECB is likely to persist as "neutral/dovish" in the foreseeable future (say, until mid-2020?).
The GBP and EUR saw their value decrease when traded against the US Dollar, yet many traders may have missed their opportunity, setting their trades aside for Easter weekend.
Thanks to the Easter holiday, financial markets close in both Australia and Hong Kong, as well as many European countries. While Forex continues around the globe, volume takes a big hit thanks to that fact.
The rise of the 10-year Treasury yields of the US and a recovery in retail sails in March has given enough support to the USD to achieve this feat.
Yukio Ishizuki, Daiwa Securities’ senior currency strategist stated that it is “better” to say that the Euro is weakening instead of the Dollar strengthening. He also added that it would be difficult for the USD to gain more value, for the Euro is unlikely to plunge any deeper.
Further news will hit headlines when March’s existing home sales are released as investors will be looking for more clues regarding the health of the US economy.
The Euro stepped down to $1.1244, which adds up to previous loses. The British pound saw its price plunge to the $1.2994 mark from its previous 1.30. Finally, the USD faced a 0.1% increase against the Yen, standing at 111.98 per USD.
Today, it's an Easter Monday vacation to Europe and Canada, while the US offers the equity markets, the futures markets and bond markets all open for a complete day. Today's Forex market (as it did on strong Friday too) is open. The difference today is the opening of the US equities and bonds markets.
The pair expands its centralizing price movements toward the structure of a symmetric triangle on an hourly basis among the merging trend lines. due to the latest meaningful change from 109.70 the triangle could be classified as a bullish Pennant, highlighting a short break before the prior trend resumed.
Technical indicators on the daily chart kept to a bullish preference but still began to lose constructive traction in the hourly chart with a warrant of prudence for forceful traders. Therefore, to verify the pair's short term path in the vacation thinned liquidity circumstances it would be wise to expect a crucial break through the aforesaid trading range.
Gold expects Friday's recovery to continue on the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bullish move from $1.196 to $1.347. However, the recovery movement runs out of steam before the 100-hour line. Trading activity is likely to be low due to Easter Monday.
On the 1-hour chart, technical indicators gained momentum, while the daily and 4-hour charts outweigh the downside risks. Only a sustained spurt over the above-mentioned resistance should open the door for gains in the direction of the horizontal hurdle at $1.285.
ABN AMRO analysts anticipate an average USD 70/bbl Brent oil price in 2019 and indicate that dangers increasing or decreasing are arising from the present levels.
“Downside risks contain Trump’s comments towards OPEC to rise production and cap the oil price. Upside risks are due to a possible final trade agreement between US and China as well as the insufficient level of investments in future exploration of – mainly – heavy sour oil.”
“We remain positive on gold prices. First of all, our expectations of a weaker US dollar will lift price. Also, a less hawkish central banks and a more constructive outlook on the Chinese yuan will be supportive. And finally, the positive technical picture is also positive for price.”
The index has fallen from the latest peaks in the monthly peak after 97.50 (April 2). DXY looks strong on the positive side strength and is now attacking the band 97.50/55, which is regarded as the final protection for the possible annual highest point test in the area 97.70. Looked at the wider scenario, it is anticipated that the meaningful position in the buck will continue as long as the important 200-day SMA is 96.06.
EUR/JPY extended its sideline template at the bottom of last week's zone after the sell-off to the area of 125.60. On the positive side, in the zone of 126.80, the cross must be overcome. The short-term resistance line now at 126.73 strengthens this area of resistance. The drawback stress above this area should be reduced and the door should be opened simultaneously for a probable 2019 strong test in mid–127.00s.
At the beginning of a new trading week, the USD/CAD pair came under revived selling stress, although some support was found ahead of the middle of the 1.3300s.
In the wake of the good progress of last week, they faltered to focus on and kept fighting to keep up the strength beyond the 1.3400 round figure, in the midst of a rise in crude oil prices.
On Monday, oil prices rallied more than 2%, reporting that the United States is set to launch the end of Iran's sanctions waiver, which gave the commodity currency the main boost-Loonie and put stress on the main downwards.
This was combined to the humble US dollar pullbacks from the highest level for several weeks, while bulls attempted to protect the figure of 97.00 on the round figure, and the Asian session on Monday further worked in a lesser tone.
In the early North American session, the comparatively lightweight US financial portfolio that emphasizes the only launch of the current data for domestic sales will now be examined for some near-term business momentum.
The lower ends of the latest range of EUR/USD continue to locate nearly 1.1240 after the refusal last week to reach tops above 1.1300.
After several days last week above the 1.1300 handle, the pair started a less adjustment behind a revived strength that favored the euro calendar's bock and poor prints.
Indeed, last Thursday, April's developed Euroland production PMIs again deceived investor and poured cool water on any hope of improvement in the area.
In conjunction with this, the differential in yield between the US bonds and the German Bunds have restarted to the top and have switched nearer to 255 pts following the latest solid prints of the US docket.
For the fourth consecutive day, EUR/GBP is fighting for a path with an hourly chart of 0.8645-0.8658 for 13 pips. However, the bearish perspective would be negated if the moving average 200-hour (MA) of 0.8639 presently places a floor below the pair.
Fx options expiring today at 10 am NY time via DTCC:
In NA session, the USD/JPY pair stay lower than the 112 handle and there's no justification to take a significant step because investors are already on the Easter holiday. In fact, the pair trades in its exceptionally tense weekly range of 50 pips, reinforcing the uncertainty of the pair.
Earlier today, the Bank of Japan declared a ¥20 billion to¥160 billion cut in its buy of bonds with maturities between 10 and 25 years. However, this response has not been received as part of the Bank's benchmarking way of keeping its yield close to nil.
Next week the BoJ will release a first-quarter perspective report and its monetary policy decisions. No alterations are anticipated according to a Reuters poll conducted by 17 economists on BoJ policy.
At the April 24-25 conference, the BOJ will keep its huge stimulation as well as the low-interest rate aim of below 0.1%, while keeping its commitment to guide government bond yields for ten years around nil percent, "said Reuters.
But the small volume of trade permitted the US Dollar Index to remain calm above the 97. On Monday, dor fresh momentum is taken into account in the Chicago Fed national activity index and current US home sales data.