The single currency rebounded on Monday, with EUR/USD rising to 1.1220 after Friday's 1.1200 test.
The pair is trying to shake off last week's negative performance, which came with the failure above the mid-1.1300 and just before the critical 200-day SMA.
The renewed selling pressure on the dollar, the never-ending trading tensions and the dovish attitude of the European Central Bank are the deciding factors that have weighed on the pair over the past few days, reaching the levels seen at the beginning of June.
Today, the ECB Forum in Sintra (Portugal), where members of the Central Bank, including President Mario Draghi (today and tomorrow) will speak, will also begin .
From the economic calendar, we expect today from the USA the New York Empires State Manufacturing Index, the NAHB Index and the TIC Flows.
Broad risk appetite and USD momentum should guide the development of the European currency. The developments around the trade tensions between the USA, China, the EU and Mexico play an important role.
Chinese stocks are cheerful, but generally, there is little across the remainder of the area, as investors are waiting for Wednesday's Fed conference before displaying true belief. Nikkei has traded in a very small range to begin the new week and ends the day at nearly flat rates.
Dozens of corn farmers and those who sell them seed, chemicals and equipment gathered on Thursday at the restaurant in Deer Grove, Illinois, after heavy rains caused unprecedented delays in planting this year and contributed to record floods across the central United States.
The storms have left millions of acres unseeded in the $51 billion U.S. corn market and put crops that were planted late at a greater risk for damage from severe weather during the growing season. Together, the problems heap more pain on a farm sector that has suffered from years of low crop prices and a U.S.-China trade war that is slowing agricultural exports.
Forecasts for even more rain sent U.S. corn futures to a five-year high on Friday, though fewer farmers will benefit from soaring prices because of the planting disruptions.
James McCune, a farmer from Mineral, Illinois, was unable to plant 85% of his intended corn acres and wanted to commiserate with his fellow farmers by hosting the "Prevent Plant Party" at The Happy Spot. He invited them to swap stories while tucking into fried chicken and a keg of beer in Deer Grove, a village of about 50 people located 120 miles (193 km) west of Chicago.
A senior Democrat on a congressional panel seeking President Donald Trump's tax returns warned on Saturday that the current Congress might not see the long-sought tax documents without launching an impeachment inquiry.
Representative Lloyd Doggett, who sits on the House Ways and Means Committee, said Democrats, who control the House of Representatives, were slow to request Trump's tax returns from the Internal Revenue Service and now need to push back forcefully against Trump's refusal to turn over the returns.
"Because this request was delayed until April, and no legal action has yet been filed to get the returns, it is certain we won't get them this year and perhaps (will face) some challenge to even get them with favorable expedited rulings by the time this Congress ends," Doggett, who chairs the House Ways and Means health subcommittee, told CNN.
The current Congress is due to end in January 2021.
House Ways and Means Chairman Richard Neal requested six years of Trump's individual and business tax returns on April 3, under a federal law that says the Treasury secretary "shall furnish" such documents if requested by a lawmaker who holds in Neal's position. He later subpoenaed the returns.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin rejected the subpoena. On Friday, the Justice Department issued a legal opinion saying the secretary was on solid ground for doing so.
Saudi Arabia called for swift action to secure Gulf energy supplies and joined the United States in blaming Iran for attacks on two oil tankers in a vital shipping route that have raised fears of broader confrontation in the region.
Thursday's tanker attacks in the Gulf of Oman exacerbated the antagonistic fallout from similar blasts in May that crippled four vessels. Washington, already embroiled in a standoff with Iran over its nuclear program, has blamed Tehran and Saudi Arabia's crown prince also accused Iran on Saturday.
Iran has denied any role in the strikes on the tankers south of the Strait of Hormuz, a major transit route for oil from Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest crude exporter, and other Gulf producers.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said there must be a "rapid and decisive response to the threat" to energy supplies, market stability and consumer confidence, his ministry said on Twitter.
India will impose higher retaliatory tariffs on 28 U.S. products including almonds, apples and walnuts from Sunday, following Washington's withdrawal of key trade privileges for New Delhi.
The new duties take effect from Sunday, a government notification said, in the latest trade row since U.S. President Donald Trump took office in 2017 vowing to act against countries with which Washington has a large trade deficit.
From June 5, President Trump scrapped trade privileges under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) for India, the biggest beneficiary of a scheme that allowed duty-free exports of up to $5.6 billion.
India termed that "unfortunate" and vowed to uphold its national interests.
Reuters previously reported India was preparing to levy higher tariffs ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first meeting with Trump on the sidelines of a G20 summit in Japan on June 28 and 29.
India initially issued an order in June last year to raise import taxes as high as 120% on a slew of U.S. items, incensed by Washington's refusal to exempt it from higher steel and aluminum tariffs.
Higher Indian tariffs on U.S. goods could impact growing political and security ties between the two nations.
The U.S. Trade Representative's Office on Monday will kick off seven days of testimony from U.S. retailers, manufacturers and other businesses about President Donald Trump's plan to hit another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods with tariffs.
The hearings beginning Monday will end on June 25, the USTR said in a statement on Friday. That timeline means Trump would not be able to trigger the fresh wave of tariffs until after July 2, when a seven-day final rebuttal comment period ends.
U.S.-China relations have deteriorated since Trump accused Beijing in early May of reneging on commitments to change its ways of doing business with the rest of the world.
Since then, Trump raised tariffs to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods and ordered his trade representative to prepare tariffs on another $300 billion, effectively covering almost all Chinese exports to the United States.
Trump has said he wants to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping during June 28-29 G20 leaders summit in Japan, but neither government has confirmed a meeting.
The proposed tariffs on another $300 billion are a further "response to China’s unfair trade practices related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation," USTR said in its statement Friday.
The Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week is shaping up as a pivotal one for Wall Street, with stocks primed for a selloff should the Fed fail to take an even more dovish tilt after policymakers raised expectations for a rate cut in recent weeks.
The benchmark S&P 500 has rallied more than 5% this month as softening economic data coupled with comments by Fed officials heightened expectations the Fed will cut rates by the end of the year and, at the very least, telegraph it is leaning toward a next rate cut at its June 18-19 meeting.
Those gains came on the heels of a selloff in May of nearly 7% in the S&P, primarily fueled by investor concerns that trade wars were escalating, slowing the economy and putting it at risk of falling into a recession.
Bets for a rate cut were amplified by comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on June 4, who said the central bank would respond "as appropriate" to the risks from a global trade war and other developments, and after a weak May payrolls report on June 7.
Any hope for rate cuts could be misguided by the given current economic and market environment.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday urged Lockheed Martin Corp to keep open its Sikorsky helicopter plant in Coatesville, Pennsylvania, a week after the weapons maker announced the planned closure of the facility.
The F-35 fighter jets maker had announced plans to close the plant, which does "completion work" for Sikorsky's S-92 and S-76D helicopters, citing a multi-year slump in the rotorcraft industry, possibly due to the protracted downturn in oil prices. The plant employs about 465 employees.
Trump wrote on Twitter that he had spoken with Lockheed Chief Executive Officer Marillyn Hewson "about continuing operations for the Sikorsky plant in Coatesville," while adding that "she will be taking it under advisement and will be making a decision soon."
"While Pennsylvania is BOOMING, I don't want there to be even a little glitch in Coatesville - every job counts. I want Lockheed to BOOM along with it!" Trump wrote, misspelling the name of the company.
Pennsylvania often is a pivotal state in U.S. presidential elections. Trump, who is seeking re-election in 2020, won the elections in the 2016 election. Coatesville is roughly 40 miles (65 km) west of Philadelphia.
Lockheed confirmed that its CEO had a conversation with Trump about possible future alternatives for the plant.
"We had an open and constructive conversation, and I agreed to explore additional options for keeping the facility open," Lockheed wrote on Twitter, quoting Hewson.
Several commissions in Mexico's Senate on Friday approved a draft law that would ratify the trade deal with the United States and Canada meant to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement, the Senate said in a statement.
The law to create the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, is slated to be voted on in the full Senate on Tuesday.
In the United States, President Donald Trump's administration has been pushing Congress to speed up a vote on the agreement, but the Democratic-led House of Representatives has sought more time to review the deal.
"We will have a trade deal signed and ratified this month," said Ricardo Monreal, the Senate leader of the MORENA party, in the Senate's statement. "No fine print, nor negotiations or deals are done in the dark between Mexico and the United States."
WTI Crude Oil is among the major SMAs in a downtrend. The market is trading at a narrow range at the end of the week. The Bears must break through the 52.00 to increase the losses towards 51.00. On the other hand, the goal of the Bulls is to overcome the 53.00 towards 53.60 and 54.00.
The USD/CHF challenges the 0.9980 resistance and the 200-day SMA. The USD/CHF reached its new daily high, while the market is under a short-term upward pressure. The next bullish goal is parity. Supports are at 0.9960 and 0.9930.
The EUR/USD remains defensive at the end of the week and the new week low was formed at 1.1230.
The pair came under additional selling pressure, after which US economic data showed that retail sales rose 0.5% on a monthly basis. Core sales also rose 0.5% on a monthly basis and retail sales control also increased 0.5%.
US industrial production rose by 0.4% (month) in May, while manufacturing output increased by 0.2%, both of which outperformed expectations. Next, expect us from the economic calendar of the U-Mich consumer sentiment index, and the April business inventories.
Today's data has weakened speculation on short-term Fed interest rate cuts and so both US yields and the dollar are rising, hurting the pair.
The GBP/USD is trading in a downtrend among the major SMAs. The Bears have broken through the 1.2650, opening the door for a move towards 1.2600 and 1.2560. Resistors are at 1.2650 and 1.2700.
The JPY is more strong and the NZD the weakest because at the beginning of the NY session the "risk off" sentiment is prevalent on the market (PMI production information were smaller in NZ as well). The equities are lower when Broadcom was deceptive and talked about China's danger. China The manufacturing industry had been feeble, but retail sales had improved. US retail sales are scheduled for 8:30 AM ET. Cap/Production Industrial. The use shall be made available at 9:15 AM ET. At 10 AM ET, the sentiment of Univ from Michigan will come out. It is also Friday when traders can take their own up and down stances out of worry of the weekend risk. Middle Eastern tensions and Trump says may be risk problems.
Oil fell on Friday after sharp gains in the previous session when prices were boosted after attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman stoked concerns of reduced crude flows through one of the world's key shipping routes.
The attacks near Iran and the Strait of Hormuz countered concerns about global demand that had hammered prices in recent weeks, analysts said.
It was the second time in a month tankers have been attacked in the world's most crucial zone for oil supplies, amid rising tensions between the United States and Iran. Washington quickly blamed Iran for Thursday's attacks, but Tehran bluntly denied the allegation.
Brent crude futures were down 17 cents, or 0.3%, at $61.14 a barrel by 0041 GMT. They settled up 2.23% on Thursday, at $61.31, having risen as much as 4.5%.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 39 cents, or 0.8%, at $51.89 a barrel. They closed 2.23% higher at $52.28 a barrel in the previous session, having also risen as much as 4.5%.
"The drums of war are beating and driving asset prices," Greg McKenna, strategist at McKenna Macro said in a morning note.
Tensions in the Middle East have escalated since U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew from a 2015 multinational nuclear pact with Iran and reimposed sanctions, especially targeting Tehran's oil exports.
The AUD/USD pair has decreased during the last three trading sessions during a near-term trend-channel creation.
The blended Chinese macro data on Friday painted a rather dull image of the second-biggest world economy and increased worries about worldwide economic health. This has continued to exert some pressure on the Chinese representative Australian dollar, in the context of increasing concerns of another intensification in US-China trade conflicts.
Despite the mildly oversold situation in hourly diagrams, strengthened by harmful fundamental triggers, investors were not able to place any more combative bets and assisted to limit the failures. In the meantime, the daily oscillators retained their bearish bias and support opportunities for further devaluation.
On the flip side, the area of 0.6930-35 is now becoming instant resistance and the pair will probably switch back to the main mental mark 0.70. This, if defeated, might deny the short-term bearish view and speed some brief movement towards the 0.7070 late April swing peaks.
Asian stocks held their ground on Friday after Wall Street gained on a surge in oil prices as attacks on tankers in the Gulf of Oman stoked U.S.-Iran tensions and raised concerns over supply flows through one of the world's main sea lanes.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was little changed.
Australian stocks edged up 0.05% while Japan's Nikkei dipped 0.1%.
U.S. stocks rose on Thursday after two days of declines, with energy shares rebounding on the back of crude oil's surge. (N)
Wall Street shares have had a strong run in June on hopes the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy soon to counter a slowing global economy due to the escalating trade war with China. The S&P 500 index is up about 5% so far for the month.
But equity market gains were limited ahead of the Fed's June 18-19 meeting, which will allow investors to see if the Fed's monetary policy stance is in sync with market expectations for a near-term rate cut.
"There is a large degree of uncertainty going into next week's FOMC (Federal Reserve Open Committee) meeting as the market reaction will differ significantly depending on whether the Fed hints toward easing policy," said Shusuke Yamada, chief Japan FX and equity strategist at Bank Of America Merrill Lynch.
Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland on Thursday dismissed a suggestion that Ottawa blocks the extradition of a top executive from China's Huawei Technologies Co Ltd to the United States, saying it would set a dangerous precedent.
Huawei's Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou, who was arrested on U.S. fraud charges in Vancouver last December, will challenge Washington's extradition request at hearings that are set to begin next January.
China angrily demanded Canada release Meng and detained two Canadians on spying charges. It has also blocked imports of Canadian canola seed, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said he fears further retaliation.
The Globe and Mail newspaper on Thursday said former Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien had floated the idea of the government intervening to stop the extradition case and thereby improve ties with Beijing.
"When it comes to Ms Meng there has been no political interference ... and that is the right way for extradition requests to proceed," Freeland told a televised news conference in Washington.
"It would be a perilous precedent indeed for Canada to alter its behaviour when it comes to honouring an extradition treaty in response to external pressure," she added, saying to do so could make Canadians around the world less safe.