The recent surge in Bitcoin price as a result of institutional investment money which can be viewed from technical price patterns draws in more speculative demand. Read on as we analyze these technical price level and touch on a few interesting news releases in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, so you are not left holding the bag.
BTCUSD (Bitcoin) Technical and Fundamentals
Data made public by the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on 09 April '19, points that the overall institutional investment in Bitcoin (BTC) futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) saw a drop this past week.
The data shows that as of 09 April, institutional investors and asset managers had 244 open long positions, and 80 open short positions, which translates a reduction of 71 from the previous week for the open long positions and nine less than for the open short positions within the same time frame. The data also shows that the open spreading positions for institutional investors reduced 32 less than the previous week meaning that only three open spreading positions was posted this week.
Data provided by the Commission indicates a slight bearish sentiment among investors, as the number of short positions among institutional investors had dropped 11% as of the 09 April. While on the other hand Long positions, posted a shrinkage of almost 30% over the same period.
From April 2 to 9, total long positions saw a marginally smaller increase of 366, while short positions increased by 421.
There are 3,267 open long positions and 4,177 open short positions, meaning that although there are more ‘long than ‘short’ open positions (specifically among institutional investors on CME), the number of open short positions dominated the total open positions count for the asset.
As reported recently, the number of opened long positions for CME Bitcoin futures contracts by asset managers and institutional investors had gone up during the previous week.
An 88% increment in institutional long positions was posted this week correlated to the previous week, with 315 long contracts opened by April 2. Reports by news publications also confirmed that the number of short positions reported a 63% decrease, to 89 contracts from 241.
BTCUSD: Monthly Chart
The double bearish accumulation pattern triggered on December ’18 and January ’19 was expected to succeed a similar bearish pattern triggered earlier on September and October ’18.
Unfortunately, that was not the case as a bullish accumulation pattern switched the trend polarity to bullish on March ’19, setting up a bullish support level at 3767.0. Major support levels of 4384.0 and 4218.0 are currently threatened and there is a high probability of price closing above these levels.
BTCUSD: Weekly Chart
A sudden surge in price that broke through a bearish accumulation pattern in Q4 of 2018 initiates the beginning of a bullish trend as the trend retraced and continued by the firing of a bullish accumulation pattern on 25 February ’19. So far so good, the price of Bitcoin has increased by 37.87% after an earlier breach of a critical resistance level of 3882.0 triggered by a bearish accumulation pattern on 14 January ‘19.
BTCUSD: Daily Chart
Formation of hidden divergence patterns is great as trend pointers. Looking at the above daily chart, bullish hidden divergence patterns in combination with bullish accumulation pattern were triggered on 16 and 29 March ’19 after a bullish Fakey pattern on 05 March ’19. With a low risk of 4.02% and a price increase of 33.4% the pair broke below a recent bullish accumulation pattern on 11 Apr ’19.
BTCUSD: 4-HR Chart
The above 4hour chart shows rejection of bearish pressure as buyers force the price of Bitcoin to close above critical resistance levels on 31 March and 02 April ’19. The further price increase was triggered by a breakout of bearish accumulation on 02 Apr ’19 20:00 and triple bullish accumulation on 05 April ’19 08:00.
The most recent price decline was initiated by a bearish Fakey pattern on 10 April ’19 20:00. Going forward, a breakout of bearish accumulation on 12 April ’19 08:00 paves way for a continuation of the bullish trend.
Critical Resistance Levels of Bitcoin (BTC)
8506.7, 7788.0, 7429.2
Critical Support Levels of Bitcoin (BTC)
3215.2, 3767.0, 4218.0, 4384.0
3215.2, 3405.3, 3761.2, 3882.0
3767.0,3939.0, 3948.4, 4842.2, 4960.2
4071.0, 4112.0, 4172.0, 4745.0, 4834.0, 4992.6, 4934.7
ETHERIUM (ETH) Technical and Fundamentals
Recently in a bi-weekly meeting of Ethereum core developers that took place on 12 April '19, smaller yet more frequent hard fork/update was considered for implementation.
Some of the thinking in support cover that such a move would bring more regular updates to the protocol and would also enable the team to distribute matters and separate changes well and reduce the deployment time of updates that require multiple forks. Moreover, the testing method would be simpler considering there would be less EIPs to test and less EIP intercommunications to check.
ETHUSD: Monthly Chart
The smart contract and ICO launching platform also suffered a downward spiral in the Year 2018. Short entry signals were triggered in the form of bearish accumulation patterns on July and October ’18 with a favorable profit of 79.97% and 57.64% respectively.
A transition from the hidden bearish accumulation to a bullish accumulation is triggered on March ’19 with a strong support at 125.88. The price of Ether has increase by 30.2% from the bullish accumulation pattern, and further price close above the bearish accumulation resistance will confirm the bullish trend.
ETHUSD: Weekly Chart
Bullish divergence patterns illustrate the presence of exhausted bears and the strong probability of a trend reversal for long entry positions. The divergence pattern illustrated above coincides with a breakout of bearish accumulation pattern, thereby reinforcing the bullish campaign. Like most cryptocurrencies in the top 10 ranking by market Capitalization, the ETHUSD signals a bullish accumulation pattern indicating an opportunity to scale into the bullish trend.
ETHUSD: Daily Chart
A series of bullish hidden divergence patterns triggered on 15 and 27 March ’19 confirm the presence of bulls in the market for a 35.5% increase in the price of Ether. Attempts by the bears to reverse the bullish trend failed to a breakout on 02 and 05 April ’19.
More recently, we notice the presence of bears from a double bearish accumulation pattern triggered on 13 April ’19 with resistance at 168.51. A price close above this resistance level will reinforce the bullish rally.
Critical Resistance Levels of ETHEREUM(ETH)
838.0, 515.28, 242.62
304.09, 235.75, 165.33
Critical Support Levels of ETHEREUM (ETH)
125.88, 132.67, 141.00, 151.82
XRPUSD (Ripple) Technical and Fundamentals
Resona Bank, a major Japanese bank recently announced on 11 April '19 that it will be pulling out of the partnership with Money Tap, a Ripple powered blockchain payment project.
MoneyTap payment service was co-developed by SBI Holdings and Ripple on Oct. 3, using xCurrent, Ripple’s blockchain solution, offering clients instant domestic bank-to-bank transfers.
XRPUSD: Monthly Chart
An early attempt to a bullish trend was first signaled on September ’18 by a bullish Fakey pattern as shown above. The bears in what appears to be the last decline of the XRP triggered a double bearish accumulation pattern. The current bullish rally across major cryptocurrencies doesn’t seem to favor the XRP as price still trades below the 0.4050 and 0.46669 resistance levels.
XRPUSD: Weekly Chart
After a successive breakdown of bullish presence on 19 November ’18 and 07 January ’19, the price of XRP initiated a bottoming by triggering a breakout of bearish accumulation on 17 December ’18 and 01 April ’19. The bulls showed their strong presence through the double bullish accumulation pattern on 11 March ’19 with critical support at 0.29521.
XRPUSD: Daily Chart
Following a successful price decline from a double bearish accumulation pattern on 12 and 20 January ’19, subsequent bearish accumulation patterns triggered on 30 January and 18 February could not hold their ground. They quickly gave way to thrusting bullish pressure, as the time series chart enters into upward oscillatory cycles.
The formation of bearish accumulation and breakdown of hidden bullish accumulation pattern on 09 Apr ’19 result into more recent price decline of the XRP.
Critical Resistance Levels of Ripple (XRP)
0.93390, 0.52467, 0.46669, 0.4050
0.36111, 0.38353, 0.33242, 0.35499
Critical Support Levels of Ripple(XRP)
0.28524, 0.29952, 0.29521,
0.28524, 0.30537, 0.29850
Conclusion and Projection
Despite a slight correction of the bullish gains in the Bitcoin price, the higher monthly and weekly charts still maintain a strong bullish outlook as the pair threatens to close beyond critical resistance levels on the monthly chart.
Ripple, on the contrary, is still enclosed within a range on the monthly chart in the face of bullish pressure. The pair still finds it difficult to breach major resistance level on the monthly chart of the XRPUSD.
Ethereum shows a promising bullish trend and we look forward to a break beyond the critical resistance level of the hidden bearish accumulation pattern on the monthly chart.
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