Yesterday 31st March marked the last day of the first quarter for the year 2019. The crypto market generally shows optimism towards a bullish trend and a breach of critical resistance levels. This week, we’ll be carrying out a top-down technical analysis and look into some interesting events of Cardano (ADA), IOTA (MIOTA), and not forgetting Bitcoin (BTC).
BTCUSD (Bitcoin) Technical and Fundamentals
Bitmain in a report from Asia's South China Morning Post (SCMP) highlights that the coming year 2020 event of Bitcoin block reward halving has a high probability of reversing the fortunes of the crypto mining giant.
The block reward halving which is scheduled for May 2020 involves a division of the reward from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.
Bitmain speculates that its mining gear scheduled to for release by the end of this year will be a winner as the demand for Bitcoin will be on the increase.
Analyst says that an Upward Surge in Bitcoin price for 2019 is Questionable
In a recent interview with MarketWatch, Emmanuel Goh a former derivatives trader at JP Morgan Chase said the options market has doubled in daily volume since the beginning of this year. He further mentioned that following a $10k September expiration priced at 5 delta translates to a 5% probability of Bitcoin price reaching $10000 by September.
BTCUSD: Monthly Chart
The double bearish accumulation pattern of December '18 and January '19 show increase in selling pressure. The closing price of March, however, triggers a bullish accumulation pattern showing a transition from bearish to a bullish trend.
BTCUSD: Weekly Chart
After going through a long crypto winter, the weekly chart of the BTCUSD signals a breakout of bearish accumulation on 17 December '18. Following the bullish breakout, the price surge resumed with a bullish accumulation pattern on 25 February '19.
BTCUSD: Daily Chart
From a daily chart perspective, the price chart of the BTCUSD triggers a bullish fakey pattern on 05 March 2019, after which a bullish accumulation signaled on 15 March ’19 supported the bullish rally at 3948.4. As the pair trades close to last month’s high of 4282.4 and the bearish congestion resistance of 4384.0, the daily chart triggers a bearish fakey pattern on 21 March ’19.
BTCUSD: 4-HR Chart
On the 4hour time frame, a bullish divergent pattern is triggered on 15 March 2019 00:00, for a 5.18% increase. Activities of the bulls were checked as price broke below bullish accumulation zones on 16 and 21 March 2019 12:00. The pair from this time frame has been shifting between bullish and bearish waves, with critical support and resistance levels displayed below.
Critical Resistance Levels of Bitcoin (BTC)
4166.8, 4146.9, 4084.0
Critical Support Levels of Bitcoin (BTC)
3767.0, 3215.2, 3003.0, 1826.2
3773.3, 3761.2, 3405.3, 3215.2
3761.2, 3767.0, 3869.3, 3948.4
3869.3, 3939.0, 4040.2
ADAUSD (CARDANO) Technical and Fundamentals
In a recent interview with media outlet Cheddar, Charles Hoskinson co-founder of Ethereum and Cardano (ADA) - IOHK, said that the cryptocurrency industry requires a WiFi or Bluetooth moment.
According to Hoskinson, the required interoperability will allow for the possibility of trading information between digital and fiat currencies not just Bitcoin to Litecoin to Ethereum to Cardano but also your regular bank account.
ADAUSD: Monthly Chart
As illustrated on the monthly chart of the ADAUSD, price triggered a shooting star pattern after the closing price of January ’18, which led to a 93.3% price decline. Within that prolonged bearish trend, a bearish accumulation pattern was also triggered on October ’18, showing a single bearish candle of about 54.5%, with resistance at 0.091197.
As we come to the last days in March, we anticipate a breakout of hidden bearish accumulation after the monthly closing price above 0.0561 resistance.
ADAUSD: Weekly Chart
Let's move a step lower on the time scale to the weekly chart, where a bearish accumulation pattern is on 01 October ’18, with an established resistance at 0.086114. The ADA coin couldn't sustain a bullish recovery as it plummets by 66.0%.
A struggle towards recovering the strength of the ADA coin came when an unexpected upward surge in price cut through the bearish accumulation resistance of 0.032794. The breakout pattern suggested an opportunity to enter a long trade after the closing price of the 17 December ’18 candle. Fast forward to 25 Feb ’19, the pair signals a bullish accumulation pattern on 25 Feb ’19, allowing for scaling into the bullish trend.
From the bullish accumulation pattern on 25 February ’19, the pair move into consecutive bullish closing candles and a 73.7% price increment.
ADAUSD: Daily Chart
Following an immense bearish price slump signaled by a double bearish accumulation on 15 and 17 November ’18, the pair entered into a cycle that later triggered a bullish regular divergence on 16 December ’18.
The bullish divergence pattern was reinforced by a breakout of bearish accumulation on 16 December ’18, and early acceptance to the breakout of bearish accumulation on the weekly chart. The Cardano (ADA) coin has from that point on soared by 150.62%.
Critical Resistance Levels of Cardano (ADA)
Critical Support Levels of Cardano (ADA)
0.027811, 0.035926, 0.039964, 0.045967
IOTA (MIOTA) Technical and Fundamentals
From the official IOTA.org blog post, Zeux an FCA regulated Financial Service company recently partnered with the IOTA Foundation towards offering users MIOTA tokens as payment method on Apple Pay and Samsung Pay merchants.
Zeux, which will be launching in April this year, is also scheduled for 2020 in the US. This partnership will drastically improve the mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies as users can pay for coffee and groceries at no fee.
IOTUSD: Monthly Chart
The crypto rush of 2017 drove the price of IOTA to an all-time high of $5.80. All expectation for an extra increase in price was quashed after a bearish inside bar was signaled on January ’18, which led to the price tumbling down by 88.30% from the inside bar.
As the bearish trend proceeded, the monthly chart advanced to trigger bearish price patterns in the form of bearish accumulation on July’18, and September ’18.
IOTUSD: Weekly Chart
A view from the weekly time horizon shows a development of the 2018 bearish trend, starting with a bearish accumulation pattern on 18 December ’17 and later accompanied by a breakdown of bullish accumulation on 15 January ’18. The pair from the breakdown of bullish accumulation plunged by 92.2%.
More patterns along the bearish trend triggered as a bearish fakey on 07 May ’18 and a bearish accumulation triggered on 16 July ’18, gave chances to scale into the trend.
Unlike the monthly chart which reveals no sign towards a bullish price improvement, the weekly chart triggered a bullish regular divergence on 17 December ’18, succeeded by a more recent bullish accumulation pattern on 25 February ’19.
IOTUSD: Daily Chart
A failure of bullish accumulation on 14 November ’18, and immediately followed by triple bearish accumulation on 17 November ’18 for a 52% price decline recorded a rise in selling pressure. Another breakdown of bullish accumulation was triggered on 30 November ’18 for a 28.6% decline that later transitioned into a bullish regular divergence on 16 December ’18.
The bullish divergence pattern shot price upward by 76.2% before yielding to a bearish accumulation and dead cross of the MACD oscillator, for an opposite 34% price decline.
The current and significant pattern on the daily chart of the IOTUSD is the breakout of bearish accumulation on 13 March ’19.
Critical Resistance Levels of IOTA (IOT)
0.3193, 0.7603, 1.2579, 2.6977
0.9150, 1.1848, 2.6977, 4.5, 5.8
0.3162, 0.3206, 0.3922, 0.4299, 0.510
Critical Support Levels of IOTA (IOT)
0.1427, 0.2051, 0.2650
0.2051, 0.2091, 0.2221, 0.2650
13.86, 10.85, 9.35
Conclusion and Projection
Although the BTCUSD did not break either of the critical resistance levels of $4384.0 and $4218.0, it sure did trigger a bullish accumulation pattern, which is sufficient for a bullish campaign. From now on, our attention is on the critical support level at $3767.0.
The Altcoins, ADAUSD, and IOTUSD also show a promising bullish trend recovery as they break through their individual resistance levels. By this we look forward to a sustained crypto spring while at the same time keeping a watchful eye on the major supports.
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